Dry lightning expected

Weather West Mod • 5 minutes ago • edited
ECMWF lightning module is explicitly showing lightning over much of NorCal (including SF Bay Area) overnight Thurs. That’s a pretty strong indicator at this point, especially since all the other models are largely in agreement. It’s looking like most of this activity will be organized as a SW-NE oriented band of elevated showers and thunderstorms that will sweep from west to east, bringing very brief/light showers but perhaps an hour of lightning activity. I doubt anyone in the valley or in coastal areas will see much more than sprinkles (trace to 0.05 inches), but a few spots in the foothills and mountains could locally see 0.1-0.2 inches. Still a considerable risk of dry lightning in many areas north of and along I-80, and even the “wetter” cells will pose a significant fire ignition risk given the extreme dryness of vegetation.

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